Big mo
Carl Edwards' victory at Michigan ended a winless streak of 52 races. The timing of the win may be more significant because of another streak, as Edwards' victory marked the first non-Chevrolet Cup win in 13 races, ending a dominance that seldom is seen at this level in this era. Six Chevrolet drivers combined for 12 consecutive wins in a display of authority and momentum. Has that momentum swung, or is it simply an interruption in the Bowtie's dominant season?
I like the timing of Edwards' win. He finds himself in the thick of the Chase hunt, sitting sixth and holding a 243-point margin over Mark Martin in 13th. Getting into the Chase, obviously, is half the battle. Once the Chase begins, however, the advantage goes to the driver and team with the most momentum. The greatest illustration of momentum is the driver Edwards beat to the finish line Sunday. Martin Truex Jr. has a win, a third and a second-place finish in his last three races after not netting a top-five in the 12 prior races.
Momentum and confidence are far more valuable to a driver than horsepower or handling. Another example of that formula is Casey Mears, who scored his first win four races ago. Mears has climbed from 35th to 19th in points, in large part because he has three top-fives in four races.
Edwards now has the same advantage as Truex and Mears, but does not have the deficit Mears faces to make the Chase. With another win, Edwards would be third, based on victories, when the Chase begins.
The bottom line
The driver with the most confidence and the team which is peaking in terms of momentum will be the 2007 Nextel Cup champion. Carl Edwards, by virtue of winning at Michigan, has significantly increased his chances.
On the flip side
The opposite of what I described above appears to be what most Dodge drivers and teams are experiencing – especially Kasey Kahne. After winning six races and making last year's Chase, I (like most) expected Kasey Kahne to be a contender in 2007. One of last year's wins came at Michigan, but Sunday's 32nd-place finish there serves as an illustration of the year he has had and leaves him 28th in points.
Drivers, like other athletes, can struggle with confidence, and Kasey Kahne's current dilemma is the equivalent of a hitter in a slump. There are two things you probably can't do as a slumping baseball player that you also can't do as a slumping race car driver. One, you can't press or swing for the fences. This will result in wrecked race cars, a strikeout equivalent. Two, you can't afford to question your ability. The solution? Like baseball you have to go back to the fundamentals: extra batting practice, make contact, base hits. Reestablish your swing.
A driver needs the same type of coaching, and car owner Ray Evernham is the perfect manager to deliver the message. Going back to the fundamentals begins in practice. There is no substitute for track time, so make the absolute most of it. Keep the plan simple. If you arrive at the track with a car that is reasonable, then making small changes will be effective. It also helps the driver, as the changes are less likely to surprise. Struggling drivers like predictability.
Then qualify solidly, but don't gamble and put yourself in the hole. A positive Sunday usually is a carryover from a positive Friday. Most important, finish the job on Sunday. Simply finishing among the leaders is the start to getting back on track. Too often, a driver or team takes unnecessary chances, trying to get more than a car is capable of, and usually pays the price. Failure to manage the race and finish the job can put the team further behind.
Finishing races allows you eventually to find the top 10. Consistently finishing in the top 10 helps you find the top five. Finishing in the top five makes you a contender.
Kasey Kahne not only is a contender for race wins, but also for Nextel Cup titles. He simply needs a solid car and to get back to the fundamentals.
In my opinion
Any team owner looking for a franchise driver should consider Kyle Busch. Busch has the ability to be a superstar in Nextel Cup. He also has the time, and although he only is 22, he has been to victory lane four times in his brief Nextel Cup Career.
Managing a young driver of Busch's talent may not be as easy as hiring an older, more mature veteran. But the reward could be enormous. In my opinion, Kyle Busch is one of Nextel Cup's top 10 drivers.
Ricky Craven is Yahoo! Sports' NASCAR analyst. Send Ricky a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.
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